Shots on Target Coefficient

So having just posted something backing up a uMAXit piece I wrote, Simon Gleave made a suggestion about incorporating shot conversion rate against. So, I have done that. I’m going to call it Shots on Target Coefficient – STC = (SOT/SOTA)*(SCR/SCRA)

In other words, STC equals shots on target divided by shots on target against, all multiplied by shot conversion rate divided by shot conversion rate against. I have calculated SCRA by dividing goals conceded by shots on target faced and then getting a percentage from that.

For the 2016/17 season, as it currently stands (after 23 games played):

Team SOT SOTA SCR Goals Conceded SCRA Q Position
Chelsea 119 59 14.55 16 27.12 1.082 1
Tottenham Hotspur 140 65 11.14 16 24.62 0.975 2
Liverpool 143 71 13.4 28 39.44 0.684 4
Arsenal 121 90 14.05 25 27.78 0.680 3
Manchester City 125 67 12.77 28 41.79 0.570 5
Manchester United 137 69 8.44 21 30.43 0.551 6
Everton 113 85 11.37 24 28.24 0.535 7
West Bromwich Albion 74 109 13.19 29 26.61 0.337 8
Bournemouth 95 105 11.94 41 39.05 0.277 14
Stoke City 88 113 10.94 35 30.97 0.275 9
Southampton 108 69 6.73 28 40.58 0.260 12
Crystal Palace 89 112 11.76 41 36.61 0.255 18
Watford 86 101 11.02 39 38.61 0.243 13
Burnley 74 137 10.59 33 24.09 0.237 10
Swansea City 96 115 10.73 52 45.22 0.198 17
Leicester City 79 107 9.52 38 35.51 0.198 16
Middlesbrough 56 95 9.09 26 27.37 0.196 15
West Ham United 78 115 9.29 40 34.78 0.181 11
Hull City 80 138 8.4 47 34.06 0.143 19
Sunderland 65 144 9.01 42 29.17 0.139 20

The value of R is -0.8742. This is a strong negative correlation, which means that high X variable scores go with low Y variable scores (and vice versa) – this is obviously because a high number league position is a bad thing, but you figured that out.

Interestingly, factoring in Simon’s suggestion, the correlation is stronger than without it, -0.8742 compared with -0.8417 – factoring in SCRA makes this model even better.

I’ve not yet run this for the other seasons, but once I do, I think it’ll work.

This model, interestingly, suggests that Bournemouth are overachieving, Palace are underachieving (Simon suggests due to their propensity to concede first), and West Ham are massively overachieving, a real worry for them now that their main creative source Payet has left. Burnley are overachieving because of their amazing defensive solidity, especially Tom Heaton – while they might regress, they should be safe. Sunderland are doomed. Surely. Right?

Thanks to Simon Gleave for his suggestion.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: